Is a St. George Buyer in Late 2026 Buying at the Top? What the Data Shows

The median asking price in the St. George metro area was $600,000 in October 2026. That is 24% below the high of $788,000 set in March 2022, and 3.2% below October 2025. At the same time, 2,146 homes were for sale, the most in any month since the data series began in July 2016 and more than eight times the 254 on the market in April 2021. The figures come from Realtor.com data published through FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, and they cover Washington County as a whole.

So a buyer in late 2026 is not paying peak prices. The peak in asking prices was more than four years ago. What a buyer is paying is a peak-era mortgage rate: Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.33% in October, up from 6.86% in September. Prices could still drift lower, and nobody can rule that out. But the local numbers describe a slow market with a lot of choice, not the crowded, rising market that usually marks a top. The useful question is narrower: does this house, at this price and this payment, work for the years the buyer plans to own it?

The Key Numbers: Peak, a Year Ago, Now

All figures are for the St. George metro area (Washington County) from Realtor.com data on FRED. October 2026 was the latest month available when this was written.

Four things in that table matter more than the headline.

• Price per square foot fell half as much as the median price. At $284, it is 12% below the April 2022 high, while the median price is 24% below. When the median price falls faster than the price per square foot, the homes on the market have gotten smaller on average. Part of the 24% is a change in what is for sale, not a quarter off the same house.
• Compare October with October. The 2022 high was a spring figure. The highest October in the series was 2023, at $675,000, and October 2026 is 11% below that.
• Prices are still far above the pre-2020 level. The October 2026 median is 50% higher than October 2019. Anyone waiting for 2019 prices is waiting for a drop much larger than anything in this data.
• Sold prices have held up better than asking prices. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute's "State of the State's Housing Market: 2025-2026" report puts the Washington County median sale price for single-family homes at $580,000 in the first quarter of 2026, up 4.5% from $554,990 a year earlier. In the city of St. George it was $505,000, down 0.4%.

For current MLS figures, which are counted differently from Realtor.com's, see the table below and the St. George market statistics page.

What a Real Top Would Require

A market top followed by a sharp fall usually needs three things at once: owners who are forced to sell, falling local incomes, and far more homes than buyers. Here is how Washington County measures up on each.

Forced sellers

Sellers under pressure flood the market. In October 2026 the opposite happened: new listings fell to 416, down 23% from 540 a year earlier. Price cuts are common, on 644 listings or about 30% of everything for sale, but that share was about 35% a year earlier. Owners are trimming prices and, when that does not work, staying put. That is the behavior of people who can wait.

Falling incomes

The Bureau of Labor Statistics put Washington County's unemployment rate at 3.2% in September 2026, compared with 3.5% in September 2025. The county also keeps adding people. Census Bureau estimates released for July 1, 2025 show 213,670 residents, up 2.5% in a year and 18.5% since the 2020 census. St. George itself grew 2.0% to 108,713. The reasons behind that growth are covered in St. George's growth explained.

Oversupply

This is the weakest of the three for sellers. Inventory is at a series high, 60% above October 2019, and the median listing has been on the market 73 days, against 53 days in October 2019 and 35 in October 2021. Listings under contract in October were down 15% from a year earlier. Supply is clearly ahead of demand at today's rates. Builders have noticed: Census Bureau permit data shows about 1,750 single-family permits across the county in the first nine months of 2026, down from about 1,840 in the same months of 2025.

One of three conditions is present. That points to flat or soft prices and long marketing times, which is what the last two years have looked like. It does not rule out further declines, especially if rates rise again.

What Is Different About St. George

Retirees and cash buyers

Census Bureau estimates for 2025 show 22.4% of Washington County residents are 65 or older, compared with 13.0% statewide. Many of those buyers arrive with equity from a home sold elsewhere and borrow little or nothing. A 7.33% rate does not stop them, which is one reason prices here have not fallen as far as payment math alone would suggest. It also means financed buyers are often bidding against people who do not care about the rate.

Second homes and short-term rentals

Seasonal and investment buyers are discretionary. They can step back from the market in a way that a household needing a place to live cannot. Nightly rentals are also legal only in specific places. St. George publishes a list of approved short-term rental properties, and Washington City limits them to designated subdivisions, requires a business license for each unit and inspects each one annually. A home's price in those zones depends on rental income, so it can move differently from the house next door. Buyers who do not plan to rent nightly should be careful about paying a premium for the right to do so.

A large share of new construction

Through September 2026, Census estimates show 594 single-family permits in St. George, 480 in Washington and 360 in Hurricane. The Gardner report counted 2,888 permitted housing units of all types in Washington County in 2025, 11.1% of the state total, down from 3,066 in 2024. Builders compete directly with resale homes, and they can lower a buyer's payment with rate buydowns or closing-cost credits without cutting the recorded price. A resale seller down the street has to match that somehow.

Water

The long-run limit on supply is water. The Washington County Water Conservancy District says the county's supply comes from the Virgin River watershed, which is "reaching its full development capacity," and that local suppliers deliver about 45,000 acre-feet of drinking water a year. The district's main new source is a regional reuse system planned to produce more than 20,000 acre-feet a year by 2046, enough for about 40,000 homes. New homes also pay a district water impact fee, listed at $17,266 for a standard residential meter in November 2026. Details are on the district's water sources page and in this Washington County water guide for homebuyers. Water does not set next year's prices, but it puts a ceiling on how much the county can overbuild.

The Payment at Two Rates

Take the October median list price of $600,000 with 20% down. The loan is $480,000 on a 30-year fixed mortgage. Principal and interest is the loan times r, divided by 1 minus (1 + r) to the power of negative 360, where r is the annual rate divided by 12.

Property tax, homeowners insurance, HOA dues and mortgage insurance are extra and are the same at either rate. Everyday costs are covered in the cost of living in St. George.

Turn that around. To get the 6.86% payment at a 7.33% rate, the price would have to fall to about $572,350, a cut of roughly $27,650 or 4.6%. Each $5,000 off the price lowers the payment by about $27.50 a month in this example. A seller credit used to buy down the rate can sometimes lower the payment more than the same dollars taken off the price, so it is worth asking a lender to price both. The same rate jump slowed sales along the Wasatch Front in October, as described in this report on Salt Lake City's October sales.

Who Should Wait and Who Should Buy

Waiting makes sense for

• Buyers who expect to move again within three or four years. Selling costs and a flat market can easily erase the equity built in that time.
• Buyers who can only afford the payment if they refinance later. Lower rates are possible, not promised.
• Buyers still deciding between cities. A winter of renting is cheaper than buying in the wrong place.
• Investors whose numbers only work with nightly rental income outside an approved zone.

Buying makes sense for

• Cash buyers and those with large down payments, who get the benefit of slow sales and price cuts without the cost of the rate.
• Buyers planning to stay seven years or more, with a payment that fits today's income.
• Buyers who have found a specific home that rarely comes up. The record number of listings is spread unevenly, and the best lots and floor plans still sell.
• Buyers of new construction who can get the rate bought down as part of the deal.

Negotiating Checklist for This Market

1. Check how long the home has been listed and whether the price has been cut. With a 73-day median, a home listed for 90 days or more has usually seen few offers.
2. Look at what similar homes nearby actually closed for in the last 90 days, not what they were listed for.
3. Count the competing listings in the same subdivision and price range. More than a handful shifts leverage to the buyer.
4. Get quotes for the same loan with and without a seller-paid rate buydown, then decide whether to ask for a credit or a lower price.
5. Ask builders for their incentive in writing and compare the total cost with a resale home, including landscaping, window coverings and the HOA.
6. Keep the inspection and appraisal conditions. In a slow market there is no reason to waive them.
7. Ask for repairs or a credit after the inspection instead of absorbing the cost.
8. Confirm in writing whether nightly rentals are allowed, and by whom: the city and the HOA.
9. Set the walk-away payment before making the offer, with taxes, insurance and HOA dues included.
10. Offer the seller something other than price if it helps: a flexible closing date often costs the buyer nothing.

Current listings for every Washington County city are on Best Utah Real Estate.

Sources: Realtor.com residential listings data for the St. George, UT metro area, published through FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, "State of the State's Housing Market: 2025-2026" (September 2026); U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 population estimates and Building Permits Survey; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Freddie Mac rates as reported by Zillow (Nov. 5, 2026); Washington County Water Conservancy District; St. George and Washington City short-term rental pages.